Deontay Wilder 41 (40 KOs)-0-1 will defend his WBC Heavyweight title as he takes on Luis Ortiz 31 (26 KOs)-1 (1 KO)-0 in a rematch at the MGM Grand Las Vegas this Saturday, broadcasted on FOX PPV.
Very commonly in boxing, and sports in general there are particular narratives, narratives that often aren’t exactly correct, but are said so often that you just begin to accept that they’re true. Take football for example, or soccer. There is no particular reason why if you are a goalkeeper you are any less likely to be beaten on your near post than at your far post, however commentators will crucify you if you’re beaten at your near side, and just turn a blind eye to a goal at your far post. Or take a boxing example, there is no “southpaw advantage” in boxing, no actual physical advantage in being a southpaw as opposed to orthodox, it is just often an experience difference in the matchup between the two fighters.
What often makes these narratives hard to pinpoint is that they are so widely accepted it takes a minute to think why they are given as truth, and what in fact the actual truth is.
Stick with me here,
I listen to a lot of boxing podcasts or YouTube videos about boxing, and I really haven’t heard a lot of hype around Wilder Ortiz 2. This is probably mainly due it being kind of obscured by the Joshua Ruiz fight and also the controversy around Wilder Fury, but to be honest when I re watched the first fight I was surprised by how well Ortiz did.
I haven’t watched Wilder Szpilka in a while, but from memory, it seemed to be Szpilka doing well in the first four rounds then Wilder settling down, and really taking control until the knockout, and that’s kind of how I remembered the Ortiz fight going, but in reality it was much more like the Fury fight.
Wilder really didn’t get going at all until the end of the 5th, and while I didn’t score it round by round, but the only round I think that you could have given Wilder apart from the knockdown rounds was the 9th.
The thing is that with Wilder, you’ve got to have much greater nerve than any other fighter in the division. When Wilder looks to land a home run right hand, you are far safer long term trying to roll the shot and countering, rather than just backing up. If you simply cover up, the length and ferocity of the attack will just be too much, look at Stiverne 2, in reality you need to stay in the pocket and counter, because in doing that you will force Wilder’s output down, and take him to a place where he doesn’t want to be, a place where technique trumps power and athleticism.
This is what I think Ortiz did so well. I’d say 75% of everything that Wilder through with vengeance would be countered by fast jabs or the occasional left hand, and you could see that Wilder didn’t have the carefree attitude in his punches that he sometimes has, there was far less of the windmill right hand attempts than even in the Fury fight and that’s because Ortiz made him pay for each error he made. Look at the punches Wilder threw rounds 1-4, in so many of them he’d throw a jab, then adopt a defensive posture after because he was wary of Ortiz’s response, it really was a case of two fighters who both wanted to counter punch but one having the far better technique.
Where Ortiz did go wrong though was that in the 7th I think he went for broke, and that was shown in how it ended in the 10th. Ortiz not having the foot speed, lunged in when he shouldn’t and after the counter from Wilder, that really was that. I think it was more the stamina of Ortiz that tipped the fight, rather than any adjustments Wilder made.
Moving to the rematch then, I’m going to buck the trend because I don’t see a Wilder domination that most boxing fans are really predicting, in a way it almost reminds me of the lead up to Alvarez Kovalev 2, because I still see Ortiz controlling the exchanges and countering most of what Wilder has to throw at him, despite fans saying that the older fight is past it.
What I think Ortiz would be smart to do though is be very content at standing in front of Wilder and just giving him a bit of a poker face when he needs a rest, if Ortiz runs Wilder will come chasing, and if he throws everything hard I think the old man will gas out like in the 1st fight. I think a smart Ortiz will take the occasional round off, and focus more on targeting the body of Wilder from the opening bell, especially since Wilder doesn’t have much of an uppercut in his locker if Ortiz looks to throw the straight left to the stomach.
I don’t see it really playing out too different to the first fight, Ortiz holding the centre and both looking to counter, if I were pushed I’m going to go Ortiz points, or a very controversial Wilder points, with a knockdown for Wilder in there mid to late.
It’s a very unusual choice I know but it was just watching that 1st fight again, I don’t see the obvious improvements Wilder can make, and with some small Ortiz game plan adjustments for his conditioning I really can see Ortiz making a pretty sizable shock here.
If it does happen, we may be looking in the horizon at a Mexican versus a Cuban for the undisputed heavyweight world title, and who’d have thought that would happen a couple of years ago?
On the undercard Leo Santa Cruz 36 (19 KOs)-1 (0 KOs)-1 defends his WBA Super-Featherweight title against Miguel Flores 24 (12 KOs)-2 (2 KOs)-0.