March 29, 2024

Andy Ruiz 33 (22 KOs)-1 (0 KOs)-0 defends his WBA, IBF and WBO Heavyweight titles against Anthony Joshua 22 (21 KOs)-1 (1 KO)-0 this Saturday in a rematch at the Diriyah Arena, Saudi Arabia, broadcasted on Sky Sports Box Office in the UK and DAZN in the US.

Anthony Joshua to me is an enigma, because although I’ve only been watching boxing as a hardcore for just over five years, Joshua doesn’t fit in that traditional mould of being a superstar.

Take Mexicans out of the equation. In the English-speaking world to be a star you need to talk trash, have insane charisma, and represent your community fully, and when I say that last point let me tell you what I mean.

When I take a look at fighters such as Ricky Hatton, Tyson Fury, and Mike Tyson they epitomised everything about their communities, the good with the bad. The drugs, the parties and the alcohol, there was that sense that they still weren’t a million miles away from the streets that they left, and this is where the Anthony Joshua fan base differs, because Joshua to me is all the best parts of society and none of the bad, so he attracts that more celebrity minded fan than the hardcore.

The majority are just general sports fans, the sort who watches a Joshua fight and knows who Mayweather and Pacquiao are, but that’s about it, a lot of women too compared to most boxers for obvious reasons. So, I’ll be interested if Joshua falls, and falls badly, how much of his fan base sticks around, I suspect not too many.

This is by no means a prediction. I won’t go into the previous fight too much because I assume everyone reading this has already seen it more than the once, so I’ll go straight in with the breakdown.

Your prediction on this fight largely depends on one thing, and that is the extent that you think Joshua was “not right” in the 1st fight, because really Joshua losing that fight was nowhere near a lucky punch, Joshua was just beaten and beaten soundly.

In fact, I was so sure that it wasn’t a “lucky punch” that I made my first boxing breakdown video on the actual fight link below…

Shameless plug

I have never been convinced with Joshua’s gas tank, and I feel like I say it every time Joshua’s name comes up in conversation. Yes, he’s gone the 12, but he’s done it at his own pace, when someone pushes the pace, I’m thinking Ruiz, and points in Klitschko and Whyte, his work rate just drops off a cliff, and it seems like it takes him at least a couple of rounds to fully recover, being hugely musclebound doesn’t help this problem either.

This is where Ruiz comes in, because Ruiz following the 3rd was forcing Joshua to work when he didn’t want to. It didn’t matter that not all the punches were landing but the pressure combined with Ruiz doing an excellent job at minimising the damage he took from range was enough to grind down Joshua’s gas tank.

Ruiz basically gave Joshua a choice, either jab from range, miss and get tired moving round, or throw in a few hooks and we’ll go blow for blow on the inside where I’ll beat you up.

Joshua constantly being told by his corner to keep his hands up probably didn’t help either. A lowered guard would’ve helped both in being a bit more nimble on his feet in moving and countering, and also helping his stamina. Being 250 pounds and being asked to keep your hands up for the whole fight is tiring, no matter how big your biceps are.

The key for me for Joshua is in a word, variety. It’s all well and good Ruiz marching forward parrying the same jab over and over again what Joshua needs to do is work on throwing a bit more variation. Throw it from up high, throw an up jab, hook off the jab, throw it to the body. He needs to give Ruiz doubts about his work because at range Joshua needs to do more than survive, he needs to win.

It’s in a weird way like Connor vs Khabib, it was no good McGregor nicking the one round on the feet, when the fight was in striking, McGregor needed to make that difference pay, he needed to get Khabib on the back foot and make him think about coming in for a takedown because otherwise you just knew that once Khabib collected himself it would be one way traffic.

A weird analogy I know, but I hope you can see my point.

I don’t think Joshua can beat Ruiz with a linear backwards and forwards type of style, it is going to take some fluidity, and that’s why I am a bit nervous with Mccracken in his corner, because I’m all for simple instructions, but there’s only so many “jab right hands” that you can throw before you realise this isn’t working.

As for Ruiz, I have been thinking for a while what Ruiz can do differently in the rematch, and to be honest I really can’t think of much. Ideally he wouldn’t try and jab from range as much with Joshua as in the 1st, and ideally there’d be a bit more head movement on the way in, but with Ruiz’s feet and body type he’s never going to be a Mike Tyson. I’d probably say more of the same, and start fast, give Joshua flash backs of the first fight and don’t let him take the centre of the ring, do what you did in the first and make Joshua work for space, and when he has it limit the damage. As in the first Ruiz doesn’t need to come off better from range, he just can’t be outclassed and outgunned.

I’ve been going back and forth on this fight for so long, so before I started writing this I went back and had a look at Joshua Povetkin, and the difference to me was the footspeed.

To my eye, there was just that little extra spring in his step vs Povetkin than vs Ruiz, and maybe that was due to the low hand in that fight or maybe it was just because he was more in familiar territoruy, but if he adopts that sort of style against Ruiz I’m tentatively picking Joshua for a 12 round decision.

Adopting this slicker flashier style should give Ruiz doubts about simply walking forward, and it’s this that should give Joshua the space, and time to recover. If, he adopts more of a European style, and looks to Klitschko his way to win the outcome will be the same as in the first, just a bit later. I really don’t see Joshua spoiling his way to win, I see Joshua holding the centre in spots to win, in a similar fashion to how the Povetkin fight ended up.

I really don’t have a horse in this race, I’m not really a fan of Joshua, to me he’s a bit boring and a little too perfect, and Ruiz although I like him, I cant really support him either since if he wins it’s likely to be Haymon vs Haymon fighters for Heavyweight titles for as long as Haymon can manage.

I suppose morally I’ll be supporting Joshua then, but only because we are blessed with so many great Heavyweight fighters and a Joshua win I see as the best chance of keeping these kind of fights going.

I want Heavyweight boxing to be back for good. There’s too many good fights that haven’t been made yet.

Joshua is going to be fighting for his career and I will be supporting him, no matter which casual is rooting for him too.

On the undercard Alexander Povetkin 35 (24 KOs)-2 (1 KO)-0 fights Michael Hunter 18 (12 KOs)-1 (0 KOs)-0. Dillian Whyte 26 (18 KOs)-1 (1 KO)-0 returns to the ring against Poland’s Mariusz Wach 35 (19 KOs)-5 (3 KOs)-0, and Croatian Heavyweight prospect Filip Hrgovic 9 (7 KOs)-0-0 fights Eric Molina 27 (19 KOs)-5 (5 KOs)-0, all at Heavyweight.